Coastal Base Flood Elevations in Mississippi: Before and After Katrina Introduction and Summary This memorandum is intended for homeowners and community officials in the coastal portions of Jackson, Harrison, and Hancock counties, Mississippi. The purpose of this memorandum is two-fold: (1) to provide a post-Hurricane Katrina comparison of the base flood elevations (BFEs) that were adopted by communities as flood damage prevention ordinances in the aftermath of Katrina (termed “Ordinance BFEs”) with the new 2007 Preliminary BFEs; and (2) to provide a description of the differences among the three coastal studies undertaken by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) over the past 25 years (refer also to text box at right). In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, FEMA conducted studies to develop Advisory BFEs, which were recommended for adoption prior to completion of the detailed study resulting in the set of 2007 Preliminary BFEs. As presented in this memorandum (pages 2 & 3), Ordinance BFEs were adopted by communities to guide construction in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Typically, communities adopted the Effective BFE plus freeboard or Advisory BFE where needed. The Ordinance BFEs are generally higher than 2007 Preliminary BFEs in communities that adopted Advisory BFEs, and lower where Effective BFEs plus freeboard were adopted. For communities that adopted Advisory BFEs, the change to the 2007 Preliminary BFEs will result in no change or slight increases to BFEs near the open Gulf Coast, but will result in significant BFE decreases farther inland of coastal bays and along river floodplains. The differences among the Effective, Advisory, and 2007 Preliminary BFEs derived from the three coastal studies are attributable to the data and methods used in their calculation, as discussed in this memorandum. The differences among the three Coastal Base Flood Elevation and Base Flood (100-year event) The coastal BFE is the expected elevation of storm surge waters (stillwater elevation, or SWEL) and wave effects during the 100- year flood (also known as the “base flood”). The base flood is the flood having a 1-percent annual chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year, which is shown as the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) on Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs). The BFE was adopted by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) as the basis for floodplain management and flood insurance regulations. BFEs are described in Flood Insurance Studies (FISs) and shown on FIRMs. This Memorandum describes: Effective BFEs: The Effective BFEs are shown on the FEMA FIS and Effective FIRM that were in effect and adopted for unincorporated and incorporated areas of Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties prior to landfall of Katrina in 2005. These Effective BFEs were based on a FEMA coastal study completed between 1982 and 1985, adopted by local communities for floodplain management and enforcement, and published in the FISs and FIRMs dated between 1983 and 2002. Freeboard: Freeboard, as applied for flood damage prevention ordinances, is a factor of safety usually expressed in feet above a flood level for purposes of floodplain management. Freeboard can be added to an established BFE to compensate for the many unknown factors that could contribute to flood heights greater than the height calculated. Advisory BFEs: Advisory BFEs were developed immediately after Hurricane Katrina to provide communities with recommended building elevations for use in the reconstruction process until more detailed data became available. Advisory BFEs are based on a new flood frequency analysis that takes into account Hurricane Katrina, as well as additional tide and storm data from other events that have occurred during the past 25 years since the effective coastal study was completed, and Effective FISs and FIRMs were adopted. 2007 Preliminary BFEs: The 2007 Preliminary BFEs are based on a new hurricane storm surge modeling effort to update the 1- percent annual chance SWEL and detailed hazard modeling assessments of wave effects. These BFEs are being incorporated into Preliminary FIRMs and subjected to the regulatory 90-day appeals process. Technical Memorandum - Revised December 2007 _____________________________________________________________________________________ December 5, 2007 2 data sets are as expected and substantiate FEMA’s guidance and recommendation to use Advisory BFEs following Hurricane Katrina. FEMA developed the Advisory BFEs to provide more accurate guidelines for rebuilding in lieu of using inaccurate Effective BFEs. If building permits had been issued during rebuilding efforts using the Effective BFEs, structures would have been built at an elevation that put them at greater risk of future flood damages. The Advisory BFE elevations may have been high in some areas, but they promoted safe rebuilding immediately following the disaster. The results of the 2007 Mississippi Coastal Study, shown on the preliminary FIS and FIRM, depict accurate and up-to-date BFEs for the Mississippi coast, and can be used for effective floodplain management following their adoption. Post-Katrina Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance Following the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina, coastal Mississippi incorporated communities and unincorporated county areas needed flood recovery guidance. This was required during reconstruction and recovery following Hurricane Katrina based on FEMA’s assessment of the inadequacy of the effective FIRMs and FISs to reflect the coastal hazards and risk of future flooding in coastal areas. Since the Effective BFEs were inadequate, all incorporated and unincorporated portions of the counties recognized the need to adopt a post-Katrina Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance to replace the current floodplain management ordinances. Primarily, the affected communities either adopted the Advisory BFE or the Effective BFE plus freeboard. In several communities, an even higher standard was adopted using the Advisory BFE plus freeboard. Refer to the Effective FIS and FIRM Coastal Study and 2005 Post- Katrina Advisory BFEs Coastal Study portion of this memorandum for additional details about Effective and Advisory BFEs. Advisory BFE: As part of their immediate response to Hurricane Katrina, FEMA prepared Advisory BFEs based on simplified studies performed immediately after Katrina using generalized data. The Advisory BFE information and maps provided the best available information on future flooding potential and hazards in the coastal areas. Effective BFE Plus Freeboard: The other primary flood recovery guidance option provided by FEMA allowed the use of the Effective BFE plus added “freeboard.” This option allowed communities to adopt a modified flood damage prevention measure that added 1 to 4 feet of freeboard to the Effective BFEs. The freeboard was required as a safety factor to account for unknown variables, such as wave action, bridge openings, and the hydrological effect of urbanization of the watershed that could contribute to flood heights greater than the height calculated for the Effective BFE. The Effective BFE plus freeboard required that the elevation of new construction and foundation repairs to substantially damaged structures exceed the Effective BFE by the specified freeboard in all SFHAs shown on the Effective FIRM. ORDINANCE BFES Some communities adopted the Advisory BFEs for floodplain management and hazard mitigation during post-Hurricane Katrina recovery. However, many communities chose to adopt Effective BFEs with freeboard. In some communities, the adopted Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance included only the Advisory BFE information and mapping; in others it included a combination of Advisory BFEs and Effective BFEs plus freeboard. For this memorandum and comparison mapping, the BFEs adopted by the communities are referred to as Ordinance BFEs. Refer to the table on the next page for a list of Ordinance BFEs by community and a description of where the Ordinance BFEs apply. _____________________________________________________________________________________ December 5, 2007 3 ORDINANCE BFEs IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF MISSISSIPPI County Community Current Ordinance as of 9/8/07 Gautier BFEs on Effective FIRM + 5 feet freeboard and Advisory BFEs outside SFHA Jackson County Advisory BFEs in their entirety and, in the SFHA where there are no Advisory BFEs, the BFEs on Effective FIRM (manufactured homes only + 1 foot freeboard) Moss Point Advisory BFEs in their entirety (with commercial exemptions) Ocean Springs Advisory BFEs in their entirety + 1 foot of freeboard and, in the SFHA where there are no Advisory BFEs, the requirement is the BFE on Effective FIRM + 1 foot freeboard Jackson Pascagoula Advisory BFEs in their entirety Biloxi BFEs on Effective FIRM + 4 feet freeboard D’Iberville Advisory BFEs north of Interstate 10, and BFEs on Effective FIRM + 4 feet freeboard (V zones only), and BFEs on Effective FIRM + 3 feet freeboard (A zones only). Also adopted +14 feet elevation in a designated Community Flood Hazard Area (south of Brodie Road and Lemoyne Road). Gulfport Advisory BFEs in their entirety + 0.5 foot freeboard and, in the SFHA where there are no Advisory BFEs, the requirement is the BFE on Effective FIRM + 1 foot freeboard Harrison County BFEs on Effective FIRM + 4 feet freeboard and Advisory BFEs outside SFHA Long Beach BFEs on Effective FIRM + 3 feet freeboard and Advisory BFEs outside SFHA Harrison Pass Christian BFEs on Effective FIRM + 4 feet freeboard in A zone only, (BFEs on Effective FIRM + 1 foot freeboard in V zone only [no change in V zone from pre-Katrina Ordinance]) Bay St. Louis BFEs on Effective FIRM + 4 feet freeboard Hancock County BFEs on Effective FIRM + 4 feet freeboard Hancock Waveland BFEs on Effective FIRM + 4 feet freeboard COMPARISON OF ORDINANCE BFE WITH 2007 PRELIMINARY BFE This section presents a comparison of the Ordinance BFEs with the new 2007 Preliminary BFEs based on the new detailed study, and mapping of hazard zones and BFEs (refer to the 2007 Preliminary Mississippi Coastal Analysis Project section of this memorandum for additional details). Maps showing the comparison of BFE differences at specific modeling data points are included at the end of this memorandum. Comparison maps are presented in countywide form and also with finer-scale focus for selected communities within each county. Jackson County: The Advisory BFEs were primarily adopted county-wide, with only a few areas using the Effective BFE plus freeboard. However, Gautier only adopted Effective BFEs plus freeboard (refer to table above) and still had only slight differences with the 2007 Preliminary BFEs. The general comparison patterns along the open coast and inland floodplains vary greatly (shown on Comparison Maps at the end of this memorandum). The areas where the 2007 Preliminary BFEs are higher than the Advisory BFEs—in Biloxi Bay and Point Aux Chenes—have a similar flood pattern of focused winddriven surge into the bay and low-lying floodplains. These areas are where strong winds tend to pile up the shallow bay waters and amplify water levels at or near the height of the hurricane. Other inland areas with significant decreases among the Ordinance BFE (based on Advisory BFE) and the 2007 Preliminary BFE indicate where Advisory BFE methods overestimated the flood hazard compared to new, detailed modeling results seen in the 2007 Preliminary BFEs. _____________________________________________________________________________________ December 5, 2007 4 Harrison County: Advisory BFEs were adopted community-wide in Gulfport and the inland floodplains west of Biloxi Bay along Bernard Bayou. The differences among the Advisory BFEs and the 2007 Preliminary BFEs along the open coast of Gulfport are negligible (no change or decrease), while significant decreases are noted along inland floodplains west of Biloxi Bay along Bernard Bayou (refer to Comparison Maps at the end of this memorandum). Effective BFEs plus freeboard were adopted as the Ordinance BFE in the remaining open coast incorporated areas of the county. These areas have significant increases among the adopted Ordinance BFE and the 2007 Preliminary BFEs (refer to Comparison Maps at the end of this memorandum). There are large differences along north and western areas of St. Louis Bay. These differences are a result of storm surge pile-up against the coast that then gets funneled into bays in a way that amplifies the water levels. This funneling effect was modeled in the 2007 Preliminary Mississippi Coastal Flood Analysis Project (described later in this memorandum) and explains the statistically higher level for the 2007 Preliminary BFEs as compared to the Effective and Advisory BFEs along the coast and in St. Louis Bay, and no change or slight increase in the western portion of Biloxi Bay and up into the Wolf River. Hancock County: The Effective BFEs plus freeboard were adopted as the Ordinance BFE throughout Hancock County. The 2007 Preliminary BFEs for most of the county are higher than the adopted Ordinance BFE and the 2007 Preliminary BFEs (refer to Comparison Maps at the end of this memorandum). The amount of increase varies from the open Gulf Coast into the inland bays and floodplains. Relatively large increases are noted along the coastal areas of Waveland and Bay St. Louis, and inland of St. Louis Bay where wind-driven surge drives water up into the Jourdan River and adjacent waterways. Only slight changes (or no changes) are noted along the Pearl River and up near Pearlington; these areas experienced the smallest changes in the county. The Pearl River floodplain is heavily overgrown and forested, which would tend to inhibit the capability of the wind to drive the floodwaters inland. This dampening effect is captured in the storm surge modeling performed for the 2007 Preliminary Mississippi Coastal Flood Analysis Project, and would explain why the 2007 Preliminary BFEs are close to the Effective BFEs plus freeboard in this area. Mississippi Coastal Flood Studies Flood levels significantly exceeded the Effective BFEs in most of coastal Mississippi during Hurricane Katrina. Although FEMA and the State of Mississippi had already initiated a new limited coastal study in the area before Katrina, they realized the need to expand the scope and detail of the study given the nature of the damage and the extensive rebuilding needed after Katrina. To avoid underestimating coastal flood risks during initial reconstruction of coastal areas after Katrina, FEMA developed Advisory BFEs (2005 Post-Katrina Advisory BFEs Coastal Study). At the same time, FEMA also initiated a new state-of-the-art project (Mississippi Coastal Study) to prepare an updated hurricane storm surge and wave model. The preliminary results of the study are now compiled (2007 Preliminary BFEs from the Mississippi Coastal Study). The three coastal flood studies performed by FEMA since the 1980s for the coastal counties of Jackson, Harrison, and Hancock are described briefly below. In order to understand the studies, a brief introduction to coastal BFEs is provided. UNDERSTANDING COASTAL BFES Coastal BFEs are the 1-percent-annual-chance SWELs modified by local wave effects. Stillwater Elevations: SWELs are the height of the storm surge, which is the rise of the ocean surface that occurs in response to barometric pressure variations (the inverse barometer effect) and to the stress of the wind acting over the water surface (the wind setup component). As a standard methodology, _____________________________________________________________________________________ December 5, 2007 5 FEMA’s 1-percent-annual-chance determination is made on total SWELs (consideration of astronomical tide, wind setup for storm surge response, and wave setup). SWELs do not include local wave effects caused by overland wave height propagation and wave runup at the shoreline, but there is an additional increase in SWEL across the open coast due to wave setup. Wave setup is an increase in the total SWEL against a barrier caused by the attenuation of waves in shallow water. Wave setup can be a significant contributor to the total water level landward of the open Gulf Coast shoreline and is an important factor in the determination of coastal BFEs. The 1-percentannual- chance SWELs are determined using a FEMA-approved coastal storm surge model and standard methodologies for wave setup. Local Wave Effects: Local wave effects above the SWEL, ground surface, and normal water level (refer to the figure to right) are determined landward of the shoreline for open coasts and inland bays using wave height modeling for overland areas and wave runup calculations for steep shorelines and coastal bluffs. The wave effects are determined using standard coastal models, such as FEMA’s Wave Height Analysis for Flood Insurance Studies (WHAFIS) and RUNUP (or similar runup models). EFFECTIVE FIS AND FIRM COASTAL STUDY FEMA completed the initial coastal flood studies of the three Mississippi coastal counties between 1982 and 1985. The diagram below shows the steps used in that coastal study process. The resulting Effective BFEs are reported in the FIS reports and shown on FIRMs dated between 1983 and 2002. These BFEs were used to guide floodplain management and new construction prior to Hurricane Katrina. Stillwater Computation: For the effective coastal flood studies, data was collected on historical hurricanes to help derive the storm parameter values (central pressure, forward speed, radius to maximum winds, landfall location, and storm direction) needed to create a population of synthetic storms. FEMA’s two-dimensional (2-D) standard storm surge model, TT-SURGE (Tetra Tech, Inc., 1981) was then developed, calibrated, and subsequently used to model the synthetic storm population of simulated hurricanes to determine the flood levels in the Mississippi Sound and the Gulf of Mexico. This storm _____________________________________________________________________________________ December 5, 2007 6 Sample of Advisory BFE Map Flood Frequency Analysis versus Numerical Modeling Flood Frequency Analysis: Based on historical long-term tide records. Using data collected from site-specific tide gages, the resulting SWEL is extrapolated across wide regional geographic areas. Numerical Modeling: Models such as TTSURGE and ADCIRC are based on regional hypothetical (synthetic) storms that are designed based on historic events. Numerical modeling details open coast and inland flooding with the site-specific modeling and simulation of storm effects across wide geographic areas. surge modeling was then used with the Joint Probability Method (JPM) to determine the 1-percentannual- chance SWEL. Modeled Local Wave Effects: After completing the stillwater computation, the WHAFIS wave model was applied to determine the wave effects to be added to the SWELs. The 1-dimensional (1-D) overland wave analysis methodology was performed for wave transects (profiles) extending from the shoreline inland to the end of the coastal SWEL, and were completed for wave profiles located throughout the coastal area of Mississippi. 2005 POST-KATRINA ADVISORY BFE COASTAL STUDY Advisory BFEs were based on simplified technical assessments of SWEL studies performed immediately after Katrina for the 1-percent-annual-chance flood levels and associated wave effects. The Advisory BFE information and maps included all the open coasts and inland bay floodplains affected by flooding from Hurricane Katrina, in some areas extending inland of the Interstate 10 (I-10) highway corridor. The studies were intended to help State and local officials, as well as homeowners, identify existing and increased flood hazards revealed by Hurricane Katrina and other storms that have struck the region in the last 25 years. This information was intended to be used during recovery and redevelopment to avoid future flood damage. Stillwater Computation: The SWELs for the Advisory BFEs were quickly developed using a flood frequency analysis based on tide gage records. This frequency analysis used actual historical recorded peak surge data obtained from tide gages located throughout the area, supplemented with field observations made immediately after Katrina. The analysis included more than 20 storms that had affected the region since the Effective FIS and FIRM Coastal Study, including Hurricanes Elena (1985), Danny (1997), Georges (1998), and Katrina (2005). The Advisory BFEs were based on just two SWELs for each county—an open coast value and a back bay value. The back bay SWEL was based on flood frequency analysis only. The open coast SWEL was based on the flood frequency analysis plus wave setup. A constant value of 2 feet applied along the entire open coast was used for wave setup, based on calculations using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer’s (USACE) Shore Protection Manual. This simplification was needed to expedite derivation of the Advisory BFEs. The resulting pair of Advisory SWELs for each county, which FEMA published on October 6, 2005, is shown on the next page. _____________________________________________________________________________________ December 5, 2007 7 ADCIRC The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) 2-dimensional, depth-integrated (2DDI) surge model uses the finite element computational method to solve the shallow water equations. The finite element method permits the use of triangular grid elements, which offer more flexibility in designing grids that closely mimic complex shorelines. The completed ADCIRC grid of coastal Mississippi has over 900,000 nodes. The grid includes features such as islands, roads, bridges, open waters, bays, and rivers. Advisory SWELs published1 on October 6, 2005 Jackson Harrison Hancock Open Coast (includes wave setup value) 14 feet 18 feet 20 feet Back Bay 12 feet 16 feet 18 feet Estimated Local Wave Effects: Given the expedited schedule for FEMA’s development and mapping of the Advisory BFEs, a simplified method was used to estimate local wave effects. This method was based on a procedure within FEMA’s WHAFIS model: the depth-limited wave height calculation. This simplified method did not include wind-wave sheltering by above-surge land masses or wave height reductions caused by obstructions to overland wave propagation. 2007 PRELIMINARY MISSISSIPPI COASTAL FLOOD ANALYSIS PROJECT A thorough study—the Mississippi Coastal Study—was initiated after Katrina. The Mississippi Coastal Study, which will be completed by the end of 2007, is the basis for the 2007 Preliminary BFEs. Once reviewed and officially adopted by communities, the 2007 Preliminary BFEs in the Preliminary FIS report and shown on the Preliminary FIRMs will become the Effective BFEs. Stillwater Computation: The coastal study process used to develop the 2007 Preliminary BFEs was similar to that used in the 1985 coastal study. However, the 2007 process included updated topographic information and additional historic storm data, and used models that were capable of more sophisticated and detailed analysis. The 2007 Preliminary BFEs are based on a study that used the Advanced Circulation hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC). The ADCIRC model is capable of much greater resolution than the TT-SURGE model used in the 1980s effective coastal flood study (see text box). The wave setup values were determined using a 2-D wave model (SWAN) in conjunction with ADCIRC, and included during the final surge model runs. In more advanced wave models like SWAN, the wave setup component is combined with the storm-surge modeling, resulting in SWELs that include both storm surge and wave setup. Thus, the wave setup values are implicitly included in the SWEL values by way of storm-surge modeling, rather than added later as a separate calculation. The diagram on the next page highlights the steps that were performed for the 2007 Mississippi Coastal Study, which differed from the effective coastal flood study completed between 1982 and 1985. In addition to using a different surge and new wave models to determine peak total SWELs, the statistical analysis process (JPM) was substantially updated as part of the 2007 Mississippi Coastal Study in cooperation with USACE and included additional historic storms that have occurred since the Effective FIS and FIRM Coastal Study. This modification minimized the number of synthetic storms needed as input to the ADCIRC model. The number of synthetic storms was reduced from over a thousand to a few hundred. The modified approach, which optimizes the procedure on a minimum number of synthetic storms, is called JPM Optimum Sampling (JPM-OS). 1 http://www.fema.gov/hazard/flood/recoverydata/katrina/katrina_ms_maps.shtm _____________________________________________________________________________________ December 5, 2007 8 Modeled Local Wave Effects: Wave height was calculated using the same WHAFIS 1-D modeling method as in the effective coastal flood study completed between 1982 and 1985. The primary difference in methodology from the effective coastal study was the inclusion of wave setup in the total SWEL used in WHAFIS. COMPARISON OF COASTAL STUDIES ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES The table below briefly summarizes some of the differences in calculating the BFEs for the Effective FIS and FIRM Coastal Study, the 2005 Post-Katrina Advisory BFE Coastal Study, and the 2007 Preliminary BFEs from the Mississippi Coastal Study. Comparison of Information Used to Develop the Effective BFE, Advisory BFE, and 2007 Preliminary BFE Effective BFE (1980s–2002) Advisory BFE (2005) 2007 Preliminary BFE (2007–pending) Base Topography Best Available in 1980s Current Current (< 5 years) Stillwater Model Type TT-SURGE 2-D model Finite-difference grid scheme (w/ rectangular grids) None ADCIRC-2DDI model Finite-element grid scheme (w/ triangular grids) Model Grid Resolution Resolution of 1 nautical mile (6,067 feet or 1,852 meters) N/A Resolution up to 260 feet (80 meters) Wave Setup None Standard Shore Protection Manual calculation uniformly added on open coast SWAN 2-D Wave Model Included implicitly in SWEL prior to wave analysis _____________________________________________________________________________________ December 5, 2007 9 Useful Link for More Information www.mscoastalmapping.com Comparison of Information Used to Develop the Effective BFE, Advisory BFE, and 2007 Preliminary BFE Effective BFE (1980s–2002) Advisory BFE (2005) 2007 Preliminary BFE (2007–pending) Statistical Analysis JPM Flood Frequency Analysis – Log Pearson Type III JPM-OS Historic Storms Considered 1900 to 1980 Varied based on gage data 1940 to 2007 Accounted uniquely for different coastal areas: open coast, bay, and overland Yes, with low resolution No—used simplified, extrapolated coast values extrapolated inland Yes, with high resolution Accounted for cultural and natural effects (unique flooding effects such as bridges, open waters, bays, rivers, and vegetation type) Yes No Yes Local Wave Effects – Wave Height WHAFIS 1-D model Simplified Depth-Limited Analysis WHAFIS 1-D model SUMMARY OF DIFFERENCES IN COASTAL STUDIES IN MISSISSIPPI As described in previous sections of this memorandum, there are differences in the nature of the three coastal studies that led to either the Effective BFE, Advisory BFE, or 2007 Preliminary BFE results. There are general explanations for the differences among these results that apply across all of the Mississippi coastal area, as described below. There are also explanations specific to each county. Note that the 2007 Preliminary BFE calculation is based on the coastal study only, and does not consider riverine flooding effects. Effective BFE Compared To Advisory BFE: In all cases, the Advisory BFE elevation is higher than the Effective BFE. The difference varies between approximately 2 and 19 feet. The biggest difference in elevations is in Hancock County near Pearl River and farther inland near the riverine floodplains. The differences among the Effective BFEs and the Advisory BFEs are primarily a result of an updated coastal flood frequency analysis and the simplified local wave height analysis. The Advisory BFEs included the influence of additional data from the past 25 years, which includes severe hurricanes that made landfall in or near Mississippi. In addition, the calculated local wave analysis did not consider if an area was sheltered from wind, waves, or obstructions to wave growth. Effective BFE Compared To 2007 Preliminary BFE: In all cases, the 2007 Preliminary BFE elevation is also higher than the Effective BFE. The difference varies between approximately 1 and 13 feet. The largest differences in elevations are around St. Louis Bay and along inland rivers. The differences among the Effective BFEs and the 2007 Preliminary BFEs are primarily a result of improved modeling resolution and up-to-date topographic and storm data used during the 2007 Mississippi Coastal Study. Although the coastal study processes (2-D storm surge modeling and JPM) used for these two coastal flood studies (effective and preliminary) were generally similar, differences included the number of synthetic storms that were modeled, the resolution of the numerical models used to provide the peak surge value, the 2-D wave modeling that accounts for an additional component to SWEL caused by wave setup, additional _____________________________________________________________________________________ December 5, 2007 10 hurricane storm parameter values for infilling and storm radius, and the way that wave effects were included in the final results (refer to the table on page 8). Advisory BFE Compared To 2007 Preliminary BFE: The Advisory BFE and 2007 Preliminary BFE varied throughout the coastal region, and showed decreases between 0 and 14 feet and increases between 0 and 7 feet. The agreement between the 2007 Preliminary BFEs and the Advisory BFEs is generally better along the open Gulf Coast and not as good in inland areas. The source of the data used to determine the Advisory BFEs was coastal tide gages, and therefore all of the inland information was derived through a simple extrapolation scheme assuming a constant maximum SWEL inland of the coast. This approximation does not account for the effects from the overland propagation of the surge and related surge level decay due to ground friction effects. Similarly, the Advisory BFEs do not account for the way in which forests and wetlands reduce the impact of wind, the complex relationship between wind- and gravity-driven inland flow, and surge flow paths, nor does it include barriers to wave propagation in the flooded areas (forests, buildings, and roadways). The most fundamental difference among the Advisory BFEs and the 2007 Preliminary BFEs is the complexity of the studies. Both studies used up-to-date topographic and storm data. However, the Advisory BFE coastal study used a flood analysis procedure (flood frequency analysis) that was intended to provide quick answers and therefore used simplified values and extrapolated them over broad geographic areas. In contrast, the 2007 Preliminary BFEs are based on a comprehensive storm surge modeling study intended to provide a solid technical basis for coastal flood levels because of their importance in the future development of the whole Mississippi coastal region. Refer to the table (on page 8) comparing the information used to develop the BFEs for additional information on the differences between these two approaches. Comparison Maps for Ordinance vs. 2007 Preliminary BFEs Note that the maps do not provide flood boundary information; this information will be published on the 2007 Preliminary FIRMs. Jackson County • Ordinance BFEs compared to 2007 Preliminary BFEs for unincorporated areas • Subset of community maps include: o Gautier and Pascagoula o St. Martin and Ocean Springs Harrison County • Ordinance BFE compared to 2007 Preliminary BFE for unincorporated areas • Subset of community maps include: o Biloxi and D’Iberville o Gulfport o Pass Christian and Long Beach Hancock County • Ordinance BFEs compared to 2007 Preliminary BFEs for unincorporated areas • Subset of community maps include: o Waveland and Bay St. Louis o Pearlington The rest of this is text from 10 different maps. §¨¦10 §¨¦110 tu90 M i s s i s s i p p i S o u n d B i l o x i B a y Jackson County Mobile County Harrison County MS A L Vancleave Latimer St. Martin Gulf Hills D'Iberville Escatawpa Hickory Hills Helena Grand Bay Gulf Park Estates Wade Big Point Ocean Springs Gautier Pascagoula Moss Point Trent Loft Airport De Soto National Forest ¹ 0 2 4Miles Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. Jackson County: Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) Jackson County Hickory Hills Helena Gautier Pascagoula Moss Point Trent Loft Airport §¨¦10 tu90 UV63 UV613 UV611 90 Main Old Spanish Gautier Vancleave Ingalls Old Mobile Denny Industrial Graveline Saracennia Shortcut Chi cot Grierson 2nd Market 14th Dolphin Frederick Griffin River Pascagoula Louise Washington Ladnier Orchard Kreole Jefferson Earl Old Stage Dantzler Telephone Belair Presley Bayou Cumbest De La Pointe Magnolia 90 611 ¹ 0 1 2Miles Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. Jackson County: Gautier / Pascagoula - Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) Jackson County Harrison County Latimer St. Martin Gulf Hills D'Iberville Gulf Park Estates Ocean Springs §¨¦10 §¨¦110 tu90 UV57 UV15 UV67 UV609 57 Beach Bienville Old Spanish Tucker Government Lemoyne Division Daisy Vestry Main Beachvi ew Irish Hill Washington Oak Hal stead North Gorenflo Fountainbleau Howard Popps Ferry Gautier Vancleave Old Hwy 67 Bayview Ploesti 11th Belle Fontaine Auto Mall Forrest Hammill Farm Elm Shearwater Mermaid D Iberville Bri dge Magnolia Center Beach Beach Old Hwy 67 KKeeeesslleerr AAiirr FFoorrccee BBaassee ¹ 0 1 2Miles Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. Jackson County: St. Martin / Ocean Springs - Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) §¨¦10 §¨¦110 tu49 tu90 tu90 M i s s i s s i p p i S o u n d S t . L o u i s B a y B i l o x i B a y Harrison County Hancock County Jackson County MS Latimer Lyman Pass Christian D'Iberville Bay St. Louis St. Martin Waveland Saucier Biloxi Gulfport Long Beach Gulfport-Biloxi Airport De Soto National Forest 0 2 4Miles ¹ Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) Harrison County: Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs Harrison County Jackson County Latimer D'Iberville Biloxi St. Martin Gulfport Biloxi §¨¦10 §¨¦110 tu90 UV67 UV15 UV67 Beach Pass Tucker Popps Ferry Lorraine Irish Hill Lemoyne Division Daisy Vestry Cowan Main Old Hwy 67 Oak Ploesti Gorenflo Cedar Lake Howard 7th John Ross Dedeaux Bayview Woolmarket Lamey Bridge Porter Oneal Beauvoir Auto Mall Forrest Mcdonnell D Iberville Bridge Popps Ferry Bridge Bay Shore Old Hwy 67 Popps Ferry Gorenflo Howard Lorraine Old Hwy 67 KKeeeesslleerr AAiirr FFoorrccee BBaassee 0 0.5 1Miles ¹ Harrison County: Biloxi - Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) Harrison County Gulfport Long Beach Biloxi Gulfport-Biloxi Airport §¨¦10 tu90 tu49 UV67 Beach Pass 28th Canal Landon 25th Dedeaux 33rd Lorraine Three Rivers Airport Klondyke Cowan 19th Railroad Washington Colby 17th He we s John Ross Broad Courthouse Popps Ferry Beauvoir Commission Engram 20th Mason Railroad Lorraine Popps Ferry NNaavvaall CCoonnssttrruuccttiioonn CCttrr 0 0.5 1Miles ¹ Harrison County: Gulfport - Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) Harrison County Hancock County Pass Christian Bay St. Louis Long Beach §¨¦10 tu90 Beach Menge North Kiln Delisle 2nd Vidalia 28th Beatline Wittman Red Creek Dunbar Henderson Washington Central Railroad County Farm Kapalama Old Spanish Cedar Cuevas Delisle Kiln Firetower Firetower Diamondhead Longfellow Beach 0 0.5 1Miles ¹ Harrison County: Pass Christian - Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) §¨¦10 tu90 tu190 tu90 S t . L o u i s B a y M i s sis s i p p i S o u n d Hancock County St. Tammany Parish Harrison County L A MS Kiln Diamondhead Pearlington Waveland Shoreline Park Bay St. Louis Pass Christian Pearl River Stennis Airport 0 2 4Miles ¹ Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) Hancock County: Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs Hancock County Harrison County Diamondhead Waveland Shoreline Park Bay St. Louis Stennis Airport §¨¦10 tu90 UV43 UV607 UV603 UV43 B 43 Lower Bay Central Washington Old Spanish Dunbar Waveland Lake Shore Old Lower Bay Lakeshore Beach Gex Golf Club Nicholson Longfellow 19th Kiln Delisle Clermont Ioor Analii Stennis Airport Old Gainesville Hancock 2nd Beach Lower Bay Beach Hancock 0 1 2Miles ¹ Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) Hancock County: Waveland / Bay St. Louis - Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs Hancock County St. Tammany Parish L A Pearlington §¨¦10 tu90 UV604 UV607 Lower Bay 34th Ansley Lake Shore Old Lower Bay Lakeshore Hancock Heron Bay Park Lower Bay 0 1 2 Miles ¹ Note: Use of the Preliminary DFIRM is recommended to identify site-specific flood boundary limits and BFEs. December 2007 Elevation Change (in Feet) BFE= Base Flood Elevation Mississippi Coastal Flood Study Decrease in BFE Increase in BFE 6 to 7 8 to 9 2 to 3 1 4 to 5 -9 to -8 -7 to -6 -5 to -4 -3 to -2 -1 0 (no change) Hancock County: Pearlington - Comparison of Ordinance BFEs to 2007 Preliminary BFEs